2023: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu Score Card – A Pundit’s Assessment

 

Let us look at the possible performance of Tinubu in these states. Tinubu will carry Sokoto, the only PDP state in the Northwest, and will carry Benue the only PDP state in the Northcentral. I am still interviewing people on the leaning of Oyo state, the only PDP state in the Southwest.

PEGASUS REPORTERS, LAGOS | MAY 21, 2022

APC have a total of 22 governors out of which 12 endorsed Tinubu’s nomination and 10 did not.

*On a zonal basis, no governor endorsed Tinubu’s form from the Southsouth because Ayade the only APC governor from the Southsouth is also a presidential candidate.

*In the Southeast, there are 2 APC governors and these are Umahi and Uzodinma. None of the 2 could have endorsed any presidential candidate outside the Southeast and one of them Umahi is a presidential candidate.*

*In the Southwest, there are five APC governors. One of them Fayemi is a presidential candidate and so couldn’t have signed. The other is Dapo Abiodun the governor of Osinbajo home state and one could not have expected him to endorse Tinubu. The governors of Osun, Lagos and Ondo endorsed Tinubu’s form.*

*In the Northeast there are 3 APC governors and 2 of 3 endorsed Tinubu. These are Zulum of Borno and Yahaya of Gombe. Buni of Yobe did not. In fact, no one can determine Buni’s leaning because it is totally opaque. But Yobe will vote for Lawan the senate president who is from that state.*

*In the North Central, there are 5 APC Governors and of the five, 2 endorsed Tinubu and these are Niger and Nasarawa while Yahaya Bello of Kogi is a presidential candidate, Lalong of Plateau is for Amaechi. I do not know the leaning of Abdurasaq the governor of Kwara because the politics is so toxic and most of Lai Mohammed’s supporters are now in SDP*.

*In the NW, there are 5 APC governors. Of the five, three endorsed Tinubu’s form and these are Gaundje of Kano, Matawalle of Zamfara and Masari of katsina while Badaru of Jigawa is a Presidential candidate. El Rufai who did not sign publicly today declared his support for Tinubu. The balance of 10 APC states are to be shared among the remaining 26 presidential candidates*.

*Of the balance of 10 APC states, 5 have presidential candidates and these are Umahi of Ebonyi, Bello of Kogi, Badaru of Jigawa, Ayade of Cross River and Fayemi of Ekiti.*

SWING STATES: *There are 14 swing States. These are the states not controlled by APC but will have delegates at the convention ground. The states are Abia, Akwa Ibom, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Delta, Edo, Enugu, Oyo, Taraba, Sokoto, Rivers and the FCT*.

*Let us look at the possible performance of Tinubu in these states. Tinubu will carry Sokoto, the only PDP state in the Northwest, and will carry Benue the only PDP state in the Northcentral. I am still interviewing people on the leaning of Oyo state, the only PDP state in the Southwest.*

*In the Southsouth, each state except Delta if you exclude Emefiele that has a presidential candidate. Oshiomole for Edo, Sylva and Jonathan for Bayelsa, Amaechi for Rivers, Akpabio for Akwaibom and Ayade for Cross River. Amaechi is firmly in control of Rivers APC structure but Tinubu with Magnus Abe will get some delegates.*

*The politics of Akwa Ibom is so fluid that you cannot with certainty describe where it will go. However, there are two camps, Akpabio and Amaechi. But surprisingly you have Ita Udosen of the Amaechi camp calling for delegates to welcome Osinbajo. The arrowhead of the Osinbajo campaign in Akwa Ibom is Ita Enang who is also in the Akpabio camp. As I have said earlier, Akwa Ibom politics does not lead itself to an easy definition. The delegates’ votes will be split between Amaechi and Akpabio. Tinubu will be lucky to have a delegate in Akwa Ibom vote for him. In Bayelsa, there are 2 APC presidential candidates, Sylva and Jonathan. The state with 8 local governments cannot be Amaechi will conveniently carry Edo. Most of Oshiomole’s aides are working for Amaechi. The rumour is very rife that Omo Agege is working for Osinbajo in Delta. Okorocha, Nnamani, Onu, and Nwajiuba are all from the Southeast and I do not see with the level of Igbo nationalism, the Southeast vote for Tinubu, Osinbajo or Amaechi*.

*I say categorically in conclusion that the odds are in favour of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu The President of Nigeria Come May 2023*

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